Tariff Uncertainty & Workforce Strategy in 2026

How Tariff Uncertainty Impacts Workforce Planning and Labor Costs

Tariff uncertainty continues to reshape the operational landscape for U.S. importers. After the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the administration promptly introduced temporary duties under the Trade Act of 1974. As a result, importers currently face a short-term 10 percent tariff on most imports, with rates potentially increasing to 15 percent.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that more than 133 billion dollars in tariffs may be subject to refund litigation, though the process could take months or years. At the same time, Customs and Border Protection has suspended the collection of certain duties while new levies take effect.

For supply chain and retail leaders, these ongoing changes generate more than pricing volatility. Tariff uncertainty directly influences workforce and labor cost planning, as well as overall operational stability.

How Tariff Uncertainty Disrupts Labor Planning

Fluctuating tariffs cause rapid changes in import costs. Companies may expedite shipments to avoid new duties or postpone imports in anticipation of lower rates. Certain importers have employed procedural tactics to delay the official entry of goods, thereby reducing tariff exposure.

Such actions result in unpredictable volume surges and slowdowns within distribution centers, retail stores, and manufacturing facilities.

Tariff uncertainty and workforce management are closely connected because:

• • Volume volatility increases scheduling pressure.
  • Overtime spikes when freight arrives unexpectedly.
  • Managers struggle to align staffing with fluctuating demand.
  • Frontline workforce retention suffers under instability.

Reliance on last-minute mandatory overtime to address sudden volume fluctuations can diminish employee morale. Over time, this practice contributes to increased turnover, higher replacement costs, and reduced operational stability.

The Financial Impact of Labor Cost Planning During Trade Volatility

The potential for 133 billion dollars in tariff refunds underscores the significant capital organizations have committed to trade compliance. However, the visible costs of tariffs frequently obscure underlying labor inefficiencies.

When freight volumes fluctuate due to tariff policy shifts:

• • Overtime costs rise.
  • Temporary labor usage increases.
  • Productivity declines.
  • Manager time shifts from coaching to crisis response.

Strong labor cost planning is essential. Companies should forecast labor demand using both sales projections and trade policy indicators.

Tariff uncertainty necessitates a shift in workforce management strategy from reactive staffing to structured flexibility.

Workforce Management Software Importance During Tariff Uncertainty

Workforce management software converts scheduling from a static administrative function into a dynamic planning tool. When import volumes fluctuate due to new tariffs or refund expectations, leaders require immediate visibility into labor capacity.

Modern workforce management software supports:

• • Plan versus actual labor tracking.
  • Structured voluntary overtime workflows.
  • Transparent shift coverage processes.
  • Real-time visibility into staffing gaps.

Rather than relying on mandatory overtime, managers can implement controlled flexibility. Employees may request or cover shifts within established parameters. This approach maintains operational stability and supports frontline workforce retention.

Navigating tariff uncertainty and workforce management is more effective when leaders base decisions on data rather than assumptions.

Refund Delays and Cash Flow Pressure

Trade experts caution that while the Supreme Court decision opened the door to possible refunds, the ruling did not specify how or when companies might recover funds. Importers must compile documentation and prepare for extended litigation.

Delayed refunds intensify cash flow pressures. Under constrained working capital, companies frequently scrutinize labor budgets.

Ineffective management of workforce reductions can result in long-term operational challenges. Excessive headcount reductions during temporary trade disruptions may leave organizations understaffed when volumes recover.

Workforce management software helps leaders model different labor scenarios. Instead of broad cuts, organizations can:

• • Increase shift flexibility.
  • Reduce overtime strategically.
  • Protect high-performing employees.

A structured approach strengthens operational stability, even amid policy volatility.

De Minimis Changes and Frontline Complexity

Suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports introduces additional complexity. Small parcel importers must now account for extra duties, potentially affecting sourcing decisions and fulfillment strategies.

When sourcing strategies change, fulfillment networks adjust. New distribution routes, supplier shifts, or accelerated shipping timelines all affect frontline operations.

Tariff uncertainty and workforce management challenges intensify when organizations do not align trade strategy with labor planning.

Leaders who incorporate workforce management software into broader supply chain strategies can respond more rapidly to such shifts.

Building Operational Stability in an Uncertain Trade Environment

Operational stability does not depend on perfect predictability but rather on structured adaptability.

Organizations can strengthen labor resilience during tariff volatility by:

1. 1. Monitoring Trade Developments Closely
      Supply chain leaders should collaborate with finance and compliance teams to anticipate volume swings tied to tariff announcements.
   2. Aligning Labor Forecasts With Import Timelines
      When shipments accelerate to avoid duties, labor plans should adjust immediately.
   3. Reducing Mandatory Overtime Dependence
      Structured voluntary overtime and shift coverage tools reduce burnout.
   4. Reviewing Labor Data Weekly
      Regular plan versus actual analysis improves labor cost planning and decision accuracy.

Tariff uncertainty and workforce management practices must evolve in tandem. While companies already adjust pricing and inventory strategies to trade conditions, labor strategy should receive equivalent analytical attention.

Protecting Frontline Workforce Retention

Frontline workforce retention is particularly vulnerable during periods of economic volatility. Employees react swiftly to unpredictable schedules, inconsistent compensation, and frequent mandatory overtime.

Stabilizing scheduling and providing controlled flexibility strengthens employee trust. Workforce management software supports the following:

• • Predictable scheduling windows.
  • Fair approval processes.
  • Efficient communication.

These factors have a direct impact on operational stability.

Organizations that regard labor as a strategic asset, rather than merely a variable expense, tend to outperform competitors during periods of uncertainty.

Adapting in 2026

Tariff uncertainty is unlikely to disappear soon. Temporary duties, refund litigation, and new trade investigations under the Trade Act and Trade Expansion Act signal ongoing volatility.

Although companies cannot influence trade policy, they retain control over labor management practices.

Tariff uncertainty and workforce management strategy must align. Leaders who invest in workforce management software gain:

• • Stronger labor cost planning.
  • Reduced overtime volatility.
  • Improved frontline workforce retention.
  • Greater operational stability.

Trade disruptions challenge every aspect of an organization. Companies that integrate data-driven labor management into their broader supply chain strategies are better positioned to adapt rapidly and compete effectively.