Employee Turnover in 2026 Adds Pressure to US Companies

Why Half of US Employers Expect Higher Turnover in 2026

Employee turnover in 2026 is emerging as one of the most significant workforce challenges since the pandemic. An increasing number of organizations anticipate higher attrition rates and substantially increased replacement costs, despite cautious hiring practices and a constrained labor supply.

A recent article by Amrita Ahuja in Staffing Industry Analysts presents new survey data indicating that turnover expectations have climbed sharply heading into 2026. The findings point to rising pressure on employers, particularly those managing large hourly workforces, and emphasize the need for proactive workforce retention strategies rather than reactive hiring cycles.

Addressing employee turnover in 2026 requires coordinated efforts across all organizational functions, not solely human resources. Turnover represents an operational risk that directly affects labor costs, service quality, scheduling stability, and employee morale.

Employee Turnover Expectations Are Rising Across US Employers

According to a survey conducted by Express Employment Professionals in partnership with the Harris Poll, 50% of US hiring leaders expect employee turnover to increase in 2026. The statistic represents a notable rise from 39% in fall 2024 and 33% in fall 2023.

Larger organizations feel the pressure most acutely. Among employers with 500 or more employees, 64% anticipate higher turnover, compared with:

• • 51% of companies with 100 to 499 employees
  • 48% of companies with 50 to 99 employees
  • 30% of companies with 10 to 49 employees
  • 19% of companies with two to nine employees

These figures illustrate the correlation between workforce complexity and retention capability. As organizations expand, sustaining employee engagement, scheduling consistency, and satisfaction becomes more challenging.

The anticipated increase in employee turnover in 2026 is attributed not to greater worker mobility, but to escalating pressures within workplaces.

Turnover Costs Are Rising Faster Than Many Budgets Can Absorb

Elevated employee turnover is a significant concern in itself. The concurrent increase in turnover-related costs further exacerbates the challenge.

The survey found that the average cost of turnover increased to $45,236 per employee, up from $36,723 in 2025. This figure includes recruiting, onboarding, training, lost productivity, and management time. For organizations with hundreds or thousands of frontline workers, the financial impact escalates quickly.

Workforce turnover costs are especially damaging in hourly and operational environments, where:

• • Roles require hands-on training.
  • Coverage gaps disrupt service levels.
  • Managers spend excessive time filling shifts.
  • Productivity suffers during ramp-up periods.

As employee turnover increases in 2026, organizations dependent on continual rehiring will incur higher costs without achieving better outcomes.

What Is Driving Employee Turnover in 2026

The survey reveals several clear drivers behind rising turnover expectations. Employers cite a combination of operational strain, market competition, and shifting employee priorities.

The top contributors include:

• • Increased workplace demands, cited by 37% of employers, up from 29% in 2024.
  • A competitive job market, cited by 35%, up from 23%.
  • Better pay and benefits elsewhere, cited by 32%.
  • Employees switching careers, cited by 29%, up from 22%.

These factors indicate a workforce experiencing increased strain rather than empowerment. Employees are contending with heavier workloads, unpredictable schedules, and limited flexibility, often without corresponding improvements in autonomy or support.

Why Wage Increases Alone Will Not Solve Turnover

Interestingly, the same survey found that 75% of hiring managers expect wages to rise in 2026, while only 18% foresee no change. Job seekers are more cautious, with 46% expecting wage increases and 40% expecting wages to remain flat.

This disparity stresses a key insight: wage growth alone is insufficient to offset the factors driving employee turnover in 2026.

For many frontline workers, scheduling predictability, autonomy, and work-life balance now rank alongside compensation. Higher wages do little to reduce burnout if employees still face limited control over shifts and difficulty managing personal responsibilities.

Retention strategies that focus exclusively on compensation risk overlooking the underlying causes of employee disengagement.

Reducing Employee Turnover Through Flexibility

The influence of flexibility on retention is supported by practical evidence. A prominent third-party logistics company exemplifies how implementing workforce management software, such as ShiftSwap™, can address employee turnover in 2026.

The Challenge

The organization faced monthly turnover rates exceeding 6%, resulting in higher hiring costs, operational disruptions, and inconsistent shift coverage. Leadership recognized that retention, not hiring volume, was the primary challenge.

The Solution

The company adopted ShiftSwap™ to give employees greater control over their schedules. Workers could exchange shifts seamlessly with management approval, creating transparency and trust. The platform reduced manual scheduling friction and improved communication between teams and leadership.

The Results

Within two years, the company achieved:

• • A 40% reduction in turnover.
  • A monthly all-time low turnover rate of 3.6%.
  • Lower hiring and training costs.
  • Improved morale and productivity.

This case illustrates that flexible scheduling solutions can directly address the fundamental causes of employee turnover in 2026.

The Relationship Between Flexible Shift Management & Workforce Retention

For hourly employees, schedules determine income stability, work-life balance, and stress levels. When employees can manage shifts proactively, they are less likely to leave in search of marginal improvements elsewhere.

Flexible scheduling solutions help organizations reduce last-minute absences, improve shift coverage reliability, lower manager workload, and increase employee engagement.

As employee turnover increases in 2026, organizations that offer scheduling flexibility will have the upper hand.

Preparing for Employee Turnover in 2026

The data clearly indicates a reality that workforce leaders must address. Turnover pressures are intensifying, and the cost of inaction continues to rise. Employers cannot depend solely on hiring to resolve workforce instability.

To prepare effectively, organizations should focus on:

• Retaining experienced employees rather than replacing them.
• Improving schedule transparency and predictability.
• Reducing operational friction for managers.
• Investing in workforce technology that supports flexibility.

Organizations that regard turnover as inevitable will continue to incur escalating costs. In contrast, those that address underlying drivers through organizational culture, flexibility, and advanced workforce systems will retain talent and stabilize operations.

As 2026 advances, employers who implement proactive retention measures will be better positioned for success, while those who delay action may experience increased attrition. Successful organizations will be those that facilitate employee retention.